Stratbase Institute, in partnership with Stanford University’s SeaLight project, hosted an online forum on May 6, 2025, entitled “Scarborough Shoal: Facing Facts and Exploring Options.” 

In April 2012, a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted Chinese fishing vessels inside Scarborough Shoal. The BRP Gregorio del Pilar, a Philippine Navy frigate, was deployed to investigate and discovered the vessels illegally harvesting endangered marine species. When the Philippine Navy attempted to arrest the Chinese fishermen, two Chinese maritime surveillance ships intervened, blocking the shoal’s entrance and preventing any arrests. This triggered a two-month naval standoff between the Philippines and China—an incident that would escalate into one of the most significant territorial encroachments in the history of the Indo-Pacific. 

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration issued the landmark 2016 Arbitral Award in favor of the Philippines. Despite this, China has only increased its maritime aggression and expanded its occupation of Philippine waters. These actions not only threaten regional stability but also undermine the principles of diplomacy, multilateralism, and the rules-based international order to which the Philippines and its like-minded partners are fully committed. 

The forum showcased compelling new satellite imagery, data, and storymaps that revealed significant changes in the security situation at Scarborough Shoal, alongside the growing environmental and socio-economic impacts of China’s activities in the area. 

We would like to thank our speakers Hon. Eduardo Año (National Security Adviser, National Security Council), Hon. Jonathan Malaya (Assistant Director General for Strategic Communications, National Security Council), Hon. Justice Antonio Carpio (Former Associate Justice, Supreme Court of the Philippines), CDR (Ret.) Jennifer Parker (Expert Associate, National Security College, Australian National University), Dr. Jay Batongbacal (Director, Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea, UP Diliman), Mr. Edicio Dela Torre (Co-Convenor, Atin Ito Coalition), Mr. Jim Carouso (Senior Advisor, Center for Strategic and International Studies), Mr. James Borton, (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins SAIS Foreign Policy Institute), Mr. Gregory Poling (Director, AMTI & Southeast Asia Program, CSIS), Dr. Joe Felter (Director, Stanford Gordian Knot Center), and Ms. Regina Hing (Business Editor & Anchor, Cignal TV; Fellow, Jefferson Fellowship, East-West Center).